The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor released the week of July 4 showed slight improvement in drought conditions across some of the primary corn and soybean production areas of the Midwest.
The percentage of corn and soybeans considered in drought conditions both improved by 3 percent from a week earlier, due to significant rainfall in the first few days of July.
Rain fell in a line from southeast Nebraska across southern Iowa and northern Missouri into central and southern Illinois.
On the other hand, drought conditions intensified from a week earlier in portions of southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, southeast South Dakota and Wisconsin.
Even with the significant rainfall in portions of the Corn Belt in early July, it is estimated that 67 percent of the corn acres and 60 percent of the soybean acres remain in some level of drought conditions.
The next few weeks will probably determine the yield and economic impacts from the drought conditions in 2023.
Rainfall in late June and early July has been very widespread across the drier areas in the southern third of Minnesota and northern half of Iowa, as well as in portions of Nebraska, Wisconsin, and southeast South Dakota.
Except for isolated significant rainfall totals, many locations have received relatively small precipitation totals. The University of Minnesota Research Center at Waseca reported only .16 inches of rainfall during the first 10 days of July.
This followed only 1.56 inches of total precipitation in June, which was 3.82 inches below normal.
Crop conditions at Waseca have maintained quite well due to the 1.25 inches of rainfall received during the last week of June, together with the strong subsoil moisture levels that were aided by the 6.47 inches of rainfall that fell in May.
By comparison, the U of M Southwest Research Center at Lamberton received 2.88 inches of rainfall in June; however, that location and has received only .10 inches of rainfall in early July.
Much of the corn in the Upper Midwest is now entering critical stage of tasseling development and beneficial rainfall in the next two weeks is extremely important in these areas.
Corn generally needs 1 to 1.5 inches of available moisture per week during this critical stage of development.
This can become extremely critical if drought conditions or extremely hot weather exists in areas with depleted subsoil moisture levels.
Soybeans tend to have a much wider window to withstand drought stress than corn. Drought stress in soybeans becomes much more critical as the plants approach the pod setting and seed filling stage in late July and early August.
Based on the July 3 USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report, 51 percent of the U.S. corn crop and 50 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated “good-to-excellent,” which was nearly the same as a week earlier.
These are the lowest nationwide “good-to-excellent” crop ratings in early July for both corn and soybeans since the drought year of 2012.
In Minnesota, 62 percent of the corn crop and 64 percent of the soybean crop in Minnesota was rated “good-to-excellent.”
Iowa’s “good-to-excellent” corn and soybean ratings on July 3 were 62 percent for corn and 53 percent for soybeans.
In Nebraska, the 2023 “good-to-excellent” ratings on July 3 were 49 percent for corn and 43 percent for soybeans, while South Dakota was at 49 percent for corn and 48 percent for soybeans.
In the June World Supply and Demand Report (WASDE), USDA estimated the 2023 U.S. national average corn yield at 181.5 bushels per acre and the 2023 nationwide soybean yield at 52 bushels per acre.
Many private crop production and marketing analysts are now estimating the 2023 national average crop yields at 174-177 bushels per acre for corn and 49-51 bushels per acre for soybeans.
Trends in corn and soybean market prices in the coming months will likely reflect what adjustments, if any, that USDA makes in the projected final 2023 corn and soybean yields.